New Challenges Ahead For Nuclear in 2025… And Beyond

Hello everyone!

It is with great pleasure that we come back to you with a few insights from the Atom News team. As this new year dawns, energy is more than ever at the forefront of the hot topics for 2025. At first glance, most of the limelight is stolen by AI. The consecutive Stargate and DeepSeek tsunami that have hit the market are indeed quite interesting and herald a very tech-oriented future.

But what you may have missed is that the debacle on the stock market that followed the announce that China could apparently outperform US-led AI initiatives hit hard on two sectors. NASDAQ and Tech giants like NVIDIA , for reasons that are rather self-explanatory, but also several high-profile SMR startups.

This is because AI is two things. A tremendous amount of data, AND tremendous amount of energy. Data centers are among the most energy-hungry infrastructure there are out there, and the race to the AI singularity is bound to require a lot of it… Meaning 2025 is not really the year of AI. It is, first and foremost, the year of nuclear energy!

The current panic is, to our mind, exactly that: a panic. The stock market seems quick to forget that nuclear energy is, pound for pound, the most efficient and reliable energy source there is. Both when it comes to decarbonization objectives and to supply power for any infrastructure you might think of. A putative setback for AI projects is no reason to throw the baby out with the cooling water.

Yet, the way may be a bit bumpy... Technological advantages, competition on uranium supply, financial hurdle… Here’s what we, at Atom News, believe will be the big issues to watch out for in 2025 and the coming years. Our first shot at what we pictured as a three-parts dossier, for your reading pleasure.

Part one: A competition for uranium resources… with a twist!

A boom in nuclear energy demand means, fatally, a boom in nuclear fuel demand. This has a twofold consequence. Supply has to increase, in two main fields: raw mineral and enriched uranium.

Raw mineral’s supply comes today from three main regions. First Central Asian countries, with Kazakhstan first among them, with 22 thousand tons a year average. Silver medal is Canada, which supplied 7351 tons in 2022. And to complete the podium, Africa, with Namibia and Niger which supplied a cumulative 7600 tons in 2022. The issue is, between all these lofty vacation destinations, Niger and Kazakhstan have become increasingly more difficult to work with.

In Niger, the French Orano and Canadian GovieX have been expelled in the past year from their mines in Arlit, Imouraren and Dasa by an ever-fickler junta. Niger’s strongmen are now trying to secure funds they sorely miss by getting closer to China and Russia, hoping to pursue the mines’ exploitation.

In Kazakhstan, Kazatomprom and the Kazakh government are famous for their KGB-esque way of doing business. Their relationship with the different companies that extract uranium there (Canada, Russia, France, China and Japan) alternates between angry bouts of authoritarianism and slightly less angry bouts of blackmail. On top of these issues, there is a voracious competition between companies in the region for mining quotas and new prospecting sites. Kazakhstan is very protective of its prerogatives and will frown upon any attempt to up production, especially from other countries in the region (like Uzbekistan or Kirghistan).

Ore supply is thus reliant on either unfriendly or outright chaotic countries, as long as tamer partners are not found (like Australia or Mongolia for instance). And one can bet Russia and China will not rest idly as the West scrambles for ore.

But mining is not the only place where bitter competition could crop up. Uranium has to be enriched before being turned into fuel pellets. From 3 to 5% U235 in general, and up to 20% for more exotic designs (but we’ll come back to it soon so stay tuned!).

Enrichment requires big and expensive infrastructures. Currently, Russia remains the biggest player in this field with a tremendous 46% of the world’s capacity being owned by TENEX, Rosatom’s subsidiary in charge of uranium enrichment.

However, the actual geopolitical conundrum has made Russia a literal radioactive partner for Western clients. The US initiative to wean its Russian dependency for uranium enrichment means new and expensive investments have to be made, both in the US and in countries like France or the UK to develop a counter offer to replace Russia’s supply by 2029, when exemptions will no longer be possible for US firms.

Meanwhile, something is stirring in the East. China has perfectly understood that cheap Russian enriched uranium might be just what it needs to supply its own ravenous appetite for fuel. As a reminder, China is currently building 26GW of nuclear capacity, with a further 50GW planned. Meaning its demand for fuel can only go up.

But let’s make some assumptions. What if China wanted to establish some foothold in the fuel market? The developments of its diplomatic ties with central Asian countries and its One Belt, One Road Initiative is useful for one thing, among others: it creates a uranium highway directly from the suppliers in central Asia to the Chinese-controlled Alashankou-based hub at the Xinjiang-Kazakhstan border. From there, ore can be sent to their own enrichment plants and to Shanghai’s harbor, from which uranium can be shipped around the world. With a good chunk of its inner demand being supplied by a beleaguered Russia, China could end up in a very good position to supply the rest of the world, and undercut the West’s attempt to develop its fuel independence. Talk about a joyful perspective!

Here it is for today folks! The first part of our three-fold dossier on the big topics to watch out for in the coming years.

Stay tuned for part two! ⚛️